Horse Racing: How to Handicap Maiden Sprints for Two Year Olds

By: Carl Wagner


Handicapping races for two year old maidens can seem like an impossible task. The following criteria and angles, when used in conjunction with your own methods, will help you identify the contenders and eliminate the pretenders.

Favor horses with at least four steady and brisk workouts. Steady meaning at uninterrupted intervals (every 7 days, 10 days, etc.). Brisk meaning 12 second furlongs or less (3F-36, 4F-48, etc.). Special consideration should be given to workouts that are 5 furlongs or longer. Irregular workouts and stoppages indicate an unsound horse or one not willing to run. Eliminating this type of will improve your chances.

Favor the sons or daughters of leading sires. In this case it is especially important if that sire was a sprint specialist. The sire side of the horse's pedigree is believed to be where he or she inherits their speed. Try to make yourself aware of the different angles surrounding sires. Does their progeny win on turf? dirt?. Do they win at sprints? routes? What is the sire's record with first time starters? There are many lesser known sires out there who produce high priced winners.

Favor horses that are bred to possess high early speed. This one factor kills in maiden sprints. Giving special consideration to horses with a high dosage index (10.50 or greater) pays dividends, especially when they show up for smaller stables.

Favor horses with trainers who are skillful at winning this type of race. You should pay special attention to a trainer with a win percentage of 20 or greater. Knowing if the trainer wins with his two year old runners is critical for finding solid bets.

Favor the horse with the fastest final time in its previous race. If two or more have the same final time, use the one who showed more early speed. I cannot stress enough the importance of early speed.

Favor second time starters who, in their first race, ran a Beyer Speed Figure within 15 points of the "top figure horse" in this race. In their second lifetime start, horses are eligible to improve 5 to 7 lengths. This can equal a rise of up to 18 speed figure points. You should give even more consideration if this horse receives Lasix for the first time today. This situation slips by the betting public more than it should.

Favor a horse that, last time out, raced at a shorter distance than the race today but was closing late or raced well in the stretch. That good late run sometimes indicates the horse will run well at a little longer distance. The extra 1/2 furlong or more can provide you a good reward for an easy observation.

This article barely scratches the surface of handicapping two year old maiden sprints. However, I think it will help get you started in the right direction. There is a wealth of information available to add to your handicapping arsenal (most of it free). I encourage you to grab every bit of it. If you are lost on the references to dosage index and sire statistics, The Racing Report links page can send you in the right direction.


Carl Wagner is a regular contributor to The Racing Report , which covers NY Thoroughbred horse racing at Aqueduct, Belmont, Saratoga and Finger Lakes. Sign on for a free membership at theracingreport.googlepages.com and receive information about horse racing and thoroughbred handicapping.