By: Mike Beale
You can be a successful handicapper even if you have never bet a horse before and have never read the racing form. This free thoroughbred horseracing method is extremely easy to use. It will be very profitable for any person who has the initiative to carry out the system’s 3 simple rules.
I’m going to show you the rules, and then I will show why the method works and review its advantages and weaknesses.
Here are the 3 Rules
First: The race must be a claiming race with the exception that it can not be a maiden claiming race. You can see if the race is a claiming race by looking at the race conditions in either the track program or the past performances.
Second: Calculate each horse’s lifetime earnings per start (LEPS). Use this simple equation to calculate the LEPS: (lifetime earnings) / (lifetime starts) = (lifetime earnings per start). You can find the horse’s lifetime earnings and lifetime starts in the top right-hand corner of its listing in the past performances.
Third: Place a win bet on the horse with the highest lifetime earnings per start (LEPS) if it goes to post at 8-to-1 or higher odds.
The Reasons Why this Horse Handicapping System is Profitable
Horses have different levels of ability. So there are different levels of class in thoroughbred horseracing. If a race horse is in good form, he will win easily if he is dropped to a lower class level.
When a horse meets the requirements of these 3 rules, he will have undoubtedly won races in higher class levels in the past. These horses in general can no longer be competitive at their old class level because they have had injuries. So they are used by the racing insiders as “betting tools.” The trainers keep racing these horses because they are looking to use them to make money cashing large bets. The trainer knows that if the horse can return to its former form even for only a single race, it will easily defeat the cheaper field it will face in the race he is running in today. So because of manipulation by the trainer, the horses selected by this system win regularly and will often win unexpectedly without showing any signs of improvement. Also because of trainer manipulation, these horses will pay huge odds when they win.
The Strong Points and Disadvantages
This system is extremely profitable over the long run and will usually return a profit of twenty to thirty percent per each dollar that you wager. The biggest fault of the method is the percentage of wins. You should expect it to only average from ten to fourteen percent. What this means is when you use this method you should expect large streaks of consecutive losers.
The number or size of consecutive losers for any system is governed by its win percentage. If as an example, let’s say you were winning fourteen percent of the time, which is a fairly optimistic assumption for this system. You should expect one losing streak of 34 consecutive losers in a row in every series of 1000 wagers. You would also see around 27 strings of consecutive losers of at least 10 or more for each thousand wagers that you place. What this means to you is you should expect to be playing through a consecutive losing streak of 10 or more in a row a little more than thirty seven percent of the time while you are using this method.
Most horse players don’t realize that one of the most important factors to consider when evaluating a betting system is the winning percentage. If you would prefer a system with a larger winning percentage than this method, take a look at “The Indicator Handicapping Method” which can be found at turfanalyst.com, my website.
Article Source: http://www.articleyard.com
Information about the Author:
The developer of the Indicator Handicapping Method, Mike Beale, is also known as the Turf Analyst. The methods and views that Mr. Beale brings to handicapping thoroughbred horses are truly practical and are based on over thirty five years of experience as an active handicapper.
He has made available a free e-book on handicapping thoroughbred horses which can be downloaded here:
turfanalyst.com
A supplement to this article can be viewed at:
turfanalyst.com/betting-systems-horses.html
No comments:
Post a Comment